Tomorrow's game vs. Wyoming crucial for Runnin' Rebels
As the Runnin' Rebels close the regular season this Saturday at home vs. Wyoming at 1 p.m., many UNLV fans are asking the question, "What are UNLV's chances of being in the NCAA Tournament?"
Well, according to
USA Today, it's a done deal. On Monday, it moved Maryland and UNLV into "lock" status for the tournament. Meanwhile, ESPN's bracket guru Joe Lunardi has UNLV as a No. 7 seed in
today's bracket projection and says the Rebels' chances of staying in the NCAA field are 85%. At the same time,
ESPN.com's Bubble Watch says, "As long as UNLV beats Wyoming at home on Saturday, it should feel pretty good about its chances of making the NCAA field."
However, not everyone has UNLV near lock status. While nearly all national bracket projections currently have UNLV in the field anywhere from a No. 7 to a No. 10 seed, some still believe the Runnin' Rebels will have to advance a game (or even two) in next week's Mountain West Conference Tournament to feel completely safe going into Selection Sunday on March 14. (The winner of the tournament receives an automatic-bid into the NCAA Tournament.)
So besides its 22-7 overall record and its 10-5 conference record, what has put UNLV in a positive position going into the final game of the season and entering the MWC Tournament?
Well, three of the most important determining factors in projecting the field are wins against Top 50 RPI teams, record against Top 100 RPI teams and road/neutral court record. In these three categories, UNLV is actually one of the strongest in the field of what some refer to as the "bubble" teams. The Runnin' Rebels have four wins over Top 50 teams, are 7-4 against Top 100 RPI teams and are 10-4 in away/neutral site games. In fact, those are the numbers that have led to the "lock" or near "lock" status by some because they are so strong when compared to many teams being considered for the tournament.
How does all the NCAA tourney talk impact the Rebels?
"Nothing changes from our standpoint," said UNLV coach Lon Kruger. "As long as we keep winning, we know we have another game. Whether we believe we are in as an at-large or not does not change our goal of playing in the conference tournament to win it. And we know eight other teams have that same goal as well."
So, ultimately, what do all of these projections mean? Well, only one thing is certain: Tomorrow's game vs. Wyoming is UNLV's most important game of the year... to this point.